25 responses to “Yellowstone New Year’s Eve Update”

1. Thomas Donlon

   January 15, 2009

   Hi Tianca.
   A few years ago two different people where I used to work told me about Yellowstone Supervolcano. Since then I have done an immense amount of research on Yellowstone and other volcanoes. So I am at this site because of personal and collective “worry” myself. I was going to respond earlier to your post and talk about all the other dangerous spots in the world.
   However, normally you will find that Hollywood doesn’t do a whole lot of justice when it comes to historical events. It is true that some scientists may agree with some aspects of a Hollywood film – like some may agree that a movie might characterize the danger of a super-eruption. But, Yellowstone has had many rather average eruptions. In fact since the last super-eruption there has been 60-80 normal size eruptions and effusions of lava.
   Many other calderas around the world and I’ll take Rabaul as an example, have had caldera forming eruptions. However, in addition to the especially dangerous eruptions they often then grow volcanoes inside them or to the side of them. So it is hard to know exactly what is happening.
   Is anything happening under Yellowstone? You bet! It has been growing an inch or two a year for a while. In seventy years if it continues at this rate we have a growth of 140 inches. A four yard elevation over an area of the park doesn’t necessarily portend an imminent eruption.
   Historically, Yellowstone has had areas under the ground heat up and blast a large chunk in the park away.
   As for “harmonic tremors” Erik has given links to where on the internet you can study them. See also Alan Sullivan’s blog at the end of my comment.
   I am not aware of fish dying … but even if they are this can be common in areas that have lots of CO2 in the deeper portions of the lake. Some large volcanic lakes in Africa and elsewhere often get CO2 build up in the deeper colder parts of the lake. Sometimes a landslide into the lake can cause the deeper CO2 water to rise to the surface and then this depressurized water bubbles like a softdrink and spews out dangerous levels of CO2, maybe methane and kills a lot of life for miles around.
   Right now at Mammoth Lake also called “Long Valley” (the site of another supervolcanic eruption some 760,000 years ago if I remember correctly) there has been a period of restlessness spanning decades. There is so much CO2 being emitted that some areas of the park have had the trees die off. People are discouraged or prohibited from lying down and camping – especially when it is snowy – because they might be overcome by CO2. The bigger the volcano often the longer the ramp up is to an eruption. However I am not ruling out the triggering effect of major earthquakes. For example if an 8 or 9 magnitude earthquake strikes in CA it would likely disturb volcanoes in that area. Similarly, Yellowstone is near a fault line in the tetons that may have a 7 magnitude earthquake every few thousand years of so. After such an earthquake Yellowstone would be more prone to heightened activity or an eruption of some sort.
   Chaiten is now acting up again. Some scientists think that it risks erupting more powerfully than it yet has in this cycle of activity. It is a Southern Hemisphere volcano. If it erupts more explosively than most are now contemplating – even at a supereruptive level called Ultra-Plinian then it would probably just affect the Southern Hemisphere. However, their food shortages would have an affect on the worldwide supply. Ash from one hemisphere tends to stay in one hemisphere. An eruption near the equator could foul up the weather on both sides of the equator (example Toba Indonesia 74,000 years ago.
   Back to perspective. Yes Yellowstone has risen a few feet since a survey a hundred years ago. However Captain Cook landed on Iwo Jima and it has risen 40 meters since then. It is based in a submerged caldera. The growth rate of this volcano is much faster than the growth rate at Yellowstone.
   So I agree with Erik. Yellowstone is probably going to be fine. More worrisome to me are the Caldera Complexes throughout South America and elsewhere that have produced supereruptions in the past as big as the Yellowstone eruptions. However these are likely unmonitored as was Chaiten before it started erupting. (I don’t think it likely that they will erupt in our life time – but I am incredulous that we don’t stick some seismometers on them – for they are potentially catastrophic.)
   Kamchatka has had large caldera eruptions especially around 42,000-40,000 years ago. The area is now also becoming more active. Some people have expected that the large 9 magnitude Earthquake that caused the Indonesian Tsunami could have shaken up the earth and spurred more activity. The Russians are now scurrying to get their Kamchatka monitoring stations working again.
   If we did not have seismographs in Yellowstone – we would not be paying any attention to what is happening there. It hasn’t even had a four magnitude earthquake there recently. People can barely feel the strongest quakes in the swarms.
   Tianca, if you want to be jumpy … maybe I ought to start a website of my own that looks at all the spots in the world that we should be jumpy about.
   There are about 80 caldera volcanoes listed at the Smithsonian website. It is these largely unmonitored and restless volcanoes that are more likely to take us by some sort of surprise in our lifetime. Just like in 1816 we had no summer because of the 1815 eruption of Tambora, we could very well lose a growing season and see some worldwide famine from an eruption of one of these lesser volcanoes.
   Keep monitoring Yellowstone … yes … I’d also like to see you back up your comments – I don’t believe hearsay – I’ve never met you before and I don’t know who your sources are.. .
   However, the best sources for good volcanic information right now is Alan Sullivan’s blog.
   http://www.seablogger.com/
   He is monitoring the Chaiten eruption right now. The dome has grown by about 500 meters since about spring (while erupting the whole time). He is not an expert … but he is pretty fast learner and dedicates much of his days to monitoring this stuff. He gives some reasons Chaiten might be a climate changer.

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2. Tianca

   January 15, 2009

   Dead fish in the lake, lots of water leaving the lake in the river, animals freaking out and leaving the park in droves, people’s shoes melting and trails closed. Earthquakes by the bulge in the lake are not the only thing going on!!! And the press tripping all over themselves to ‘calm’ people down. They aren’t very convincing, either. Rangers can’t get sleep because of the swarms.
   Explain all of this away. The lake is hot!
   Tianca

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3. Simon

   January 11, 2009

   Erik,
   It is possible that my friends were mistaken, I know they dont go down to yellowstone all that often (beats my why, id spend all the time down there) so its possible they simply mistook something thats been around for a while as new.

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4. Erik Klemetti

   January 11, 2009

   Tianca – I would be stunned if there was anyone trying to cover up activity at Yellowstone. In fact, I would imagine we’re getting more information about this swarm than any swarm in the history of the caldera. At this point, the swarm just doesn’t merit any alerts or evacuations.
   Simon – That would be big news, but I have yet to hear anyone I know mention this.

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